Survivorship Bias
Cognitive Bias进阶
Definition
Focusing excessively on the people or things that "survived," while ignoring those that didn't, leading to false conclusions.
Example
"Bill Gates and Steve Jobs both dropped out and became successful, so dropping out is a shortcut to success." (Ignoring the thousands who dropped out and failed)
如何避免
主动寻找"沉默的大多数"——那些失败了、没有被报道的案例。成功案例只是冰山一角。